Wyscout data to Bayesian team ranking

Without live matches I found time to work on my third iteration of my Bayesian model to turn Wyscout data into Football Behavior Management (FBM) data. To be clear: we only accept correlation above 80% and R2 above 60%. So far all 7 competitions checked have a correlation of at least 80% and sometimes it goes up till an astonishing 95%!

The Wyscout team data we use are:

Average goals scored
Average goals conceded
Shots off Target
Shots on Target
Passes inaccurate
Passes accurate
Recoveries (low, medium, high)
Losses (low, medium, high)
Challenges failed
Challenges won

Als please note that we use team data for these correlations that can NOT be traced back to individual players. Unlike the correlations we get with FBM probabilities that are based on stats of individual players and that can be traced back to these players.

Premier League

	Rank	Points	FBM Wyscout score	FBM Wyscout Attack	FBM Wyscout Passing	FBM Wyscout Defense
Liverpool	1	99	84	70	74	54
ManCity	2	81	93	72	83	53
ManUnited	3	66	77	63	66	51
Chelsea	4	66	76	54	74	51
Leicester	5	62	75	60	66	52
Tottenham	6	59	64	54	62	49
Wolves	7	59	61	54	58	50
Arsenal	8	56	64	52	79	47
Sheffield	9	54	52	53	54	50
Burnley	10	54	41	44	48	50
Southampton	11	52	44	44	51	49
Everton	12	49	45	42	57	47
Newcastle	13	44	33	36	51	47
Crystal	14	43	36	36	54	47
Brighton	15	41	49	40	62	48
West Ham	16	39	44	43	54	48
Aston Villa	17	35	33	36	52	46
Bournemouth	18	34	33	35	53	46
Watford	19	34	31	33	51	47
Norwich	20	21	25	23	59	44

Correlation with rank 93% (R2=88%) and points 90% (R2=81%)

Bundesliga

	Rank	Points	FBM Wyscout score	FBM Wyscout Attack	FBM Wyscout Passing	FBM Wyscout Defense
Bayern	1	61	93	73	80	54
Dortmund	2	57	89	69	78	52
Leipzig	3	54	84	70	68	52
Leverkusen	4	53	80	60	73	50
Gladbach	5	52	69	60	61	49
Wolfsburg	6	39	51	48	54	50
Freiburg	7	37	50	45	57	49
Schalke	8	37	45	41	58	47
Hoffenheim	9	36	51	40	80	47
Koln	10	34	44	43	54	48
Hertha	11	34	43	43	55	46
Augsburg	12	30	33	41	46	46
Berlin	13	30	33	38	48	48
Frankfurt	14	28	46	43	54	50
Mainz	15	27	30	34	51	45
Dusseldorf	16	24	31	31	55	47
Bremen	17	21	31	30	57	44
Paderborn	18	18	31	34	54	44

Correlation rank = 91% (R2=82%) and points = 96% (R2=93%)

Bundesliga 2

	Rank	Points	FBM Wyscout score	FBM Wyscout Attack	FBM Wyscout Passing	FBM Wyscout Defense
Bielefeld	1	53	80	65	67	51
HSV	2	46	75	60	68	49
Stuttgart	3	45	75	54	73	50
Heidenheim	4	44	56	51	56	49
Darmstadt	5	39	52	49	55	49
Aue	6	38	46	49	51	47
Kiel	7	38	55	48	60	48
Greuther	8	37	51	50	54	47
Hannover	9	35	45	38	76	50
Regensburg	10	34	34	44	44	47
St. Pauli	11	33	48	46	55	47
Bochum	12	32	46	44	56	47
Osnabruck	13	30	42	43	53	47
Sandhausen	14	30	42	41	52	50
Nurnberg	15	30	40	38	54	48
Karlsruher	16	28	33	39	46	48
Wiesbaden	17	28	33	39	47	48
Dresden	18	24	30	40	44	47

Correlation rank = 88% (R2=78%) and points = 93% (R2=87%)

Bundesliga 3

	Rank	Points	FBM Wyscout score	FBM Wyscout Attack	FBM Wyscout Passing	FBM Wyscout Defense
Duisburg	1	51	64	54	61	50
Mannheim	2	50	65	56	61	50
Bayern II	3	48	51	43	64	45
Braunschweig	4	48	50	52	50	49
Unterhaching	5	47	57	54	54	50
Wurzburger Kickers	6	47	51	51	52	49
Ingolstadt	7	46	54	53	51	51
1860 Munchen	8	46	52	51	53	49
Hansa Rostock	9	45	55	51	73	51
Uerdingen	10	44	45	44	55	48
Meppen	11	43	51	52	52	48
Kaiserslautern	12	41	49	48	53	49
Viktoria Koln	13	38	52	44	63	46
Magdeburg	14	37	56	51	54	52
Chemnitzer	15	37	47	48	52	48
Zwickau	16	36	36	48	42	47
Hallescher	17	33	49	44	57	49
Munster	18	33	38	43	50	46
Sonnenhof	19	25	24	28	48	47
Jena	20	18	25	29	50	46

Correlation rank 79% (R2=62%) and points 85% (R2=73%)

Eredivisie

	Rank	Points	FBM Wyscout score	FBM Wyscout Attack	FBM Wyscout Passing	FBM Wyscout Defense
Ajax	1	56	87	69	72	53
AZ	2	56	88	70	76	51
Feyenoord	3	50	75	60	68	50
PSV	4	49	72	57	66	50
Willem II	5	44	50	50	54	48
Urecht	6	41	72	60	64	49
Vitesse	7	41	60	53	59	49
Heracles	8	36	56	53	56	48
Groningen	9	35	54	47	74	52
Heerenveen	10	33	54	46	61	48
Sparta	11	33	43	46	51	47
Emmen	12	32	47	39	62	47
VVV	13	28	26	30	50	46
Twente	14	27	47	40	62	46
Zwolle	15	26	43	38	60	46
Sittard	16	26	36	38	54	46
ADO	17	19	26	31	50	46
RKC	18	15	32	29	60	45

Correlation with rank 91% (R2=83%) and correlation with points 92% (R2=85%)

Jupiler Pro League

	Rank	Points	FBM Wyscout score	FBM Wyscout Attack	FBM Wyscout Passing	FBM Wyscout Defense
Club	1	70	74	61	63	53
Gent	2	55	74	60	66	51
Charleroi	3	54	63	64	50	51
Antwerp	4	53	56	55	53	50
Standard	5	49	59	53	58	49
Mechelen	6	44	48	48	54	48
Genk	7	44	52	44	61	47
Anderlecht	8	43	74	59	68	49
Zulte	9	36	47	44	75	46
Mouscron	10	33	49	45	57	48
Kortrijk	11	33	45	45	54	48
STVV	12	33	43	37	62	45
Eupen	13	30	33	33	54	47
Cercle	14	23	31	31	54	46
Oostende	15	22	24	32	46	45
Waasland	16	20	19	23	51	44

89% correlation with rank (R2=80%), 89% correlation with points (R2=79%)

Dutch Eerste Divisie

	Rank	Points	FBM Wyscout score	FBM Wyscout Attack	FBM Wyscout Passing	FBM Wyscout Defense
Cambuur	1	66	81	71	62	52
Graafschap	2	62	74	64	59	53
Volendam	3	55	67	55	64	49
Jong Ajax	4	54	73	59	68	47
NAC	5	50	64	55	59	51
Go Ahead	6	48	51	53	52	47
Excelsior	7	47	49	52	52	47
NEC	8	45	61	56	58	49
Almere	9	44	50	49	71	51
Telstar	10	44	48	45	58	46
Den Bosch	11	38	60	52	62	47
Jong Utrecht	12	38	45	50	50	46
Eindhoven	13	34	40	41	54	46
Jong AZ	14	28	48	40	65	44
MVV	15	27	30	38	46	46
Top Oss	16	25	33	32	56	46
Roda JC	17	22	34	39	50	46
Jong PSV	18	22	45	37	65	44
Dordrecht	19	20	31	32	54	45
Helmond Sport	20	17	20	25	48	45

91% correlation with rank (R2=83%) and 88% with points (R2=78%)

Football Behavior Management