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Case study: Watford
Many scouts wonder why their advice is being ignored by the higher ups. The reason is that whatever scouting report they have drawn up, their report fails to answer the most important question: What is the probability that player X is able to contribute to the team? Time to define “analytics” for nba fans. At…
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Wyscout data to Bayesian team ranking
Without live matches I found time to work on my third iteration of my Bayesian model to turn Wyscout data into Football Behavior Management (FBM) data. To be clear: we only accept correlation above 80% and R2 above 60%. So far all 7 competitions checked have a correlation of at least 80% and sometimes it…
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Showcase Sheffield: Sander Berge or John Lundstram
What we do with FBM contribution statistics is calculate what the probability is that a player is able to contribute to a specific team. For a player can strengthen team A, but weaken team B. We do this for four scenarios: The best case.The most likely case.The worst case.The current form case, based on the…
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What happened to the players of Sudamericano U15 2017?
In 2017 we analyzed all youth players of the Sudamericano U15. Now, two years later, it is interesting to see what happened to them and how that relates to their FBM contribution statistics. We look at all youth players who played at least 3 matches. Normally, we want at least ten matches for the most…
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Predicting the winter champion in the Eredivisie
Here is a challenge: predict the number of points teams will have in the first half of the season the moment the transfermarkt closes. Here is the catch: you are only allowed to use statistics of individual players. No team statistics like wins, goals scored, goals conceded or historical team records are allowed. The reason…
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Showcase: Noa Lang
Noa Lang first gotten on our radar January 22nd 2018, almost two years ago. This is his FBM contribution chart at that time of that match: Compared to his most recent FBM contribution chart, the only difference is that Noa Lang today has a higher transitioning & build up then two years ago: Given Noa…
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Showcase Sergiño Dest
Bayesian statistics, like FBM uses, needs way less data than before you can draw valid conclusions. That makes Bayesian statistics ideal for scanning youth players for talents. Sergiño Dest is a great showcase in this regard. According to Ronald Koeman, the current manager of the Dutch national team, one and a half a year ago…
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Our prediction of the Eredivisie Winter Champion 19/20
As there is an 80% correlation between FBM Team Score and the ranking in the Eredivisie and a 90% correlation between FBM Team Score and points scored in the Eredivisie, we can predict what the ranking of the clubs and the points they score. As teams that risks to be regulated can buy players that…
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Our prediction of the Eredivisie Winter Champion 19/20 – Preview
Please note: this is a preview of our prediction that we will make once the transfer window is closed September 2nd 2019. Yet, we don’t expect much to change between this preview and the final prediction. I will update this article once the transfer window is closed. As there is an 80% correlation between FBM…
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How successful are transfers in the Premier League?
Everyone has an opinion on the quality of the transfers of their favorite club in the Premier League. But can we actually measure successful transfers? Here is the table of successful and unsuccessful transfers in the Premier League. The explanation follows below: ClubSuccessful transfersUnsuccessful transfersLosses per playerLosses per yearProfit per youth playerTottenham Hotspur88%12%5.341.0685.87Watford84%16%3.140.6280Everton84%16%3.440.68811.48Leicester84%16%5.371.0742.69Chelsea83%17%4.740.9484.28Newcastle80%20%2.80.560.28Bournemouth80%20%2.580.5160Brighton80%20%1.80.360Arsenal78%22%7.851.574.65Manchester City77%23%8.281.6565.98Sheffield76%24%0.650.130.97Liverpool75%25%10.452.0910.44Burnley74%26%1.530.3060West Ham73%27%1.830.3663.46Huddersfield71%29%1.170.2341.65Average70%30%3.930.793.49Cardiff70%30%1.10.220Norwich60%40%3.510.7025.39Southampton59%41%6.531.3066.26Wolverhamperton55%45%1.40.280.51Crystal…