Wyscout data to Bayesian team ranking

Without live matches I found time to work on my third iteration of my Bayesian model to turn Wyscout data into Football Behavior Management (FBM) data. To be clear: we only accept correlation above 80% and R2 above 60%. So far all 7 competitions checked have a correlation of at least 80% and sometimes it goes up till an astonishing 95%!

The Wyscout team data we use are:

  • Average goals scored
  • Average goals conceded
  • Shots off Target
  • Shots on Target
  • Passes inaccurate
  • Passes accurate
  • Recoveries (low, medium, high)
  • Losses (low, medium, high)
  • Challenges failed
  • Challenges won

Als please note that we use team data for these correlations that can NOT be traced back to individual players. Unlike the correlations we get with FBM probabilities that are based on stats of individual players and that can be traced back to these players.

Premier League

RankPointsFBM Wyscout scoreFBM Wyscout AttackFBM Wyscout PassingFBM Wyscout Defense
Liverpool19984707454
ManCity28193728353
ManUnited36677636651
Chelsea46676547451
Leicester56275606652
Tottenham65964546249
Wolves75961545850
Arsenal85664527947
Sheffield95452535450
Burnley105441444850
Southampton115244445149
Everton124945425747
Newcastle134433365147
Crystal144336365447
Brighton154149406248
West Ham163944435448
Aston Villa173533365246
Bournemouth183433355346
Watford193431335147
Norwich202125235944
Correlation with rank 93% (R2=88%) and points 90% (R2=81%)

Bundesliga

RankPointsFBM Wyscout scoreFBM Wyscout AttackFBM Wyscout PassingFBM Wyscout Defense
Bayern16193738054
Dortmund25789697852
Leipzig35484706852
Leverkusen45380607350
Gladbach55269606149
Wolfsburg63951485450
Freiburg73750455749
Schalke83745415847
Hoffenheim93651408047
Koln103444435448
Hertha113443435546
Augsburg123033414646
Berlin133033384848
Frankfurt142846435450
Mainz152730345145
Dusseldorf162431315547
Bremen172131305744
Paderborn181831345444
Correlation rank = 91% (R2=82%) and points = 96% (R2=93%)

Bundesliga 2

RankPointsFBM Wyscout scoreFBM Wyscout AttackFBM Wyscout PassingFBM Wyscout Defense
Bielefeld15380656751
HSV24675606849
Stuttgart34575547350
Heidenheim44456515649
Darmstadt53952495549
Aue63846495147
Kiel73855486048
Greuther83751505447
Hannover93545387650
Regensburg103434444447
St. Pauli113348465547
Bochum123246445647
Osnabruck133042435347
Sandhausen143042415250
Nurnberg153040385448
Karlsruher162833394648
Wiesbaden172833394748
Dresden182430404447
Correlation rank = 88% (R2=78%) and points = 93% (R2=87%)

Bundesliga 3

RankPointsFBM Wyscout scoreFBM Wyscout AttackFBM Wyscout PassingFBM Wyscout Defense
Duisburg15164546150
Mannheim25065566150
Bayern II34851436445
Braunschweig44850525049
Unterhaching54757545450
Wurzburger Kickers64751515249
Ingolstadt74654535151
1860 Munchen84652515349
Hansa Rostock94555517351
Uerdingen104445445548
Meppen114351525248
Kaiserslautern124149485349
Viktoria Koln133852446346
Magdeburg143756515452
Chemnitzer153747485248
Zwickau163636484247
Hallescher173349445749
Munster183338435046
Sonnenhof192524284847
Jena201825295046
Correlation rank 79% (R2=62%) and points 85% (R2=73%)

Eredivisie

RankPointsFBM Wyscout scoreFBM Wyscout AttackFBM Wyscout PassingFBM Wyscout Defense
Ajax15687697253
AZ25688707651
Feyenoord35075606850
PSV44972576650
Willem II54450505448
Urecht64172606449
Vitesse74160535949
Heracles83656535648
Groningen93554477452
Heerenveen103354466148
Sparta113343465147
Emmen123247396247
VVV132826305046
Twente142747406246
Zwolle152643386046
Sittard162636385446
ADO171926315046
RKC181532296045
Correlation with rank 91% (R2=83%) and correlation with points 92% (R2=85%)

Jupiler Pro League

RankPointsFBM Wyscout scoreFBM Wyscout AttackFBM Wyscout PassingFBM Wyscout Defense
Club17074616353
Gent25574606651
Charleroi35463645051
Antwerp45356555350
Standard54959535849
Mechelen64448485448
Genk74452446147
Anderlecht84374596849
Zulte93647447546
Mouscron103349455748
Kortrijk113345455448
STVV123343376245
Eupen133033335447
Cercle142331315446
Oostende152224324645
Waasland162019235144
89% correlation with rank (R2=80%), 89% correlation with points (R2=79%)

Dutch Eerste Divisie

RankPointsFBM Wyscout scoreFBM Wyscout AttackFBM Wyscout PassingFBM Wyscout Defense
Cambuur16681716252
Graafschap26274645953
Volendam35567556449
Jong Ajax45473596847
NAC55064555951
Go Ahead64851535247
Excelsior74749525247
NEC84561565849
Almere94450497151
Telstar104448455846
Den Bosch113860526247
Jong Utrecht123845505046
Eindhoven133440415446
Jong AZ142848406544
MVV152730384646
Top Oss162533325646
Roda JC172234395046
Jong PSV182245376544
Dordrecht192031325445
Helmond Sport201720254845
91% correlation with rank (R2=83%) and 88% with points (R2=78%)

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