Without live matches I found time to work on my third iteration of my Bayesian model to turn Wyscout data into Football Behavior Management (FBM) data. To be clear: we only accept correlation above 80% and R2 above 60%. So far all 7 competitions checked have a correlation of at least 80% and sometimes it goes up till an astonishing 95%!
The Wyscout team data we use are:
- Average goals scored
- Average goals conceded
- Shots off Target
- Shots on Target
- Passes inaccurate
- Passes accurate
- Recoveries (low, medium, high)
- Losses (low, medium, high)
- Challenges failed
- Challenges won
Als please note that we use team data for these correlations that can NOT be traced back to individual players. Unlike the correlations we get with FBM probabilities that are based on stats of individual players and that can be traced back to these players.
Premier League
Rank | Points | FBM Wyscout score | FBM Wyscout Attack | FBM Wyscout Passing | FBM Wyscout Defense | |
Liverpool | 1 | 99 | 84 | 70 | 74 | 54 |
ManCity | 2 | 81 | 93 | 72 | 83 | 53 |
ManUnited | 3 | 66 | 77 | 63 | 66 | 51 |
Chelsea | 4 | 66 | 76 | 54 | 74 | 51 |
Leicester | 5 | 62 | 75 | 60 | 66 | 52 |
Tottenham | 6 | 59 | 64 | 54 | 62 | 49 |
Wolves | 7 | 59 | 61 | 54 | 58 | 50 |
Arsenal | 8 | 56 | 64 | 52 | 79 | 47 |
Sheffield | 9 | 54 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 50 |
Burnley | 10 | 54 | 41 | 44 | 48 | 50 |
Southampton | 11 | 52 | 44 | 44 | 51 | 49 |
Everton | 12 | 49 | 45 | 42 | 57 | 47 |
Newcastle | 13 | 44 | 33 | 36 | 51 | 47 |
Crystal | 14 | 43 | 36 | 36 | 54 | 47 |
Brighton | 15 | 41 | 49 | 40 | 62 | 48 |
West Ham | 16 | 39 | 44 | 43 | 54 | 48 |
Aston Villa | 17 | 35 | 33 | 36 | 52 | 46 |
Bournemouth | 18 | 34 | 33 | 35 | 53 | 46 |
Watford | 19 | 34 | 31 | 33 | 51 | 47 |
Norwich | 20 | 21 | 25 | 23 | 59 | 44 |
Bundesliga
Rank | Points | FBM Wyscout score | FBM Wyscout Attack | FBM Wyscout Passing | FBM Wyscout Defense | |
Bayern | 1 | 61 | 93 | 73 | 80 | 54 |
Dortmund | 2 | 57 | 89 | 69 | 78 | 52 |
Leipzig | 3 | 54 | 84 | 70 | 68 | 52 |
Leverkusen | 4 | 53 | 80 | 60 | 73 | 50 |
Gladbach | 5 | 52 | 69 | 60 | 61 | 49 |
Wolfsburg | 6 | 39 | 51 | 48 | 54 | 50 |
Freiburg | 7 | 37 | 50 | 45 | 57 | 49 |
Schalke | 8 | 37 | 45 | 41 | 58 | 47 |
Hoffenheim | 9 | 36 | 51 | 40 | 80 | 47 |
Koln | 10 | 34 | 44 | 43 | 54 | 48 |
Hertha | 11 | 34 | 43 | 43 | 55 | 46 |
Augsburg | 12 | 30 | 33 | 41 | 46 | 46 |
Berlin | 13 | 30 | 33 | 38 | 48 | 48 |
Frankfurt | 14 | 28 | 46 | 43 | 54 | 50 |
Mainz | 15 | 27 | 30 | 34 | 51 | 45 |
Dusseldorf | 16 | 24 | 31 | 31 | 55 | 47 |
Bremen | 17 | 21 | 31 | 30 | 57 | 44 |
Paderborn | 18 | 18 | 31 | 34 | 54 | 44 |
Bundesliga 2
Rank | Points | FBM Wyscout score | FBM Wyscout Attack | FBM Wyscout Passing | FBM Wyscout Defense | |
Bielefeld | 1 | 53 | 80 | 65 | 67 | 51 |
HSV | 2 | 46 | 75 | 60 | 68 | 49 |
Stuttgart | 3 | 45 | 75 | 54 | 73 | 50 |
Heidenheim | 4 | 44 | 56 | 51 | 56 | 49 |
Darmstadt | 5 | 39 | 52 | 49 | 55 | 49 |
Aue | 6 | 38 | 46 | 49 | 51 | 47 |
Kiel | 7 | 38 | 55 | 48 | 60 | 48 |
Greuther | 8 | 37 | 51 | 50 | 54 | 47 |
Hannover | 9 | 35 | 45 | 38 | 76 | 50 |
Regensburg | 10 | 34 | 34 | 44 | 44 | 47 |
St. Pauli | 11 | 33 | 48 | 46 | 55 | 47 |
Bochum | 12 | 32 | 46 | 44 | 56 | 47 |
Osnabruck | 13 | 30 | 42 | 43 | 53 | 47 |
Sandhausen | 14 | 30 | 42 | 41 | 52 | 50 |
Nurnberg | 15 | 30 | 40 | 38 | 54 | 48 |
Karlsruher | 16 | 28 | 33 | 39 | 46 | 48 |
Wiesbaden | 17 | 28 | 33 | 39 | 47 | 48 |
Dresden | 18 | 24 | 30 | 40 | 44 | 47 |
Bundesliga 3
Rank | Points | FBM Wyscout score | FBM Wyscout Attack | FBM Wyscout Passing | FBM Wyscout Defense | |
Duisburg | 1 | 51 | 64 | 54 | 61 | 50 |
Mannheim | 2 | 50 | 65 | 56 | 61 | 50 |
Bayern II | 3 | 48 | 51 | 43 | 64 | 45 |
Braunschweig | 4 | 48 | 50 | 52 | 50 | 49 |
Unterhaching | 5 | 47 | 57 | 54 | 54 | 50 |
Wurzburger Kickers | 6 | 47 | 51 | 51 | 52 | 49 |
Ingolstadt | 7 | 46 | 54 | 53 | 51 | 51 |
1860 Munchen | 8 | 46 | 52 | 51 | 53 | 49 |
Hansa Rostock | 9 | 45 | 55 | 51 | 73 | 51 |
Uerdingen | 10 | 44 | 45 | 44 | 55 | 48 |
Meppen | 11 | 43 | 51 | 52 | 52 | 48 |
Kaiserslautern | 12 | 41 | 49 | 48 | 53 | 49 |
Viktoria Koln | 13 | 38 | 52 | 44 | 63 | 46 |
Magdeburg | 14 | 37 | 56 | 51 | 54 | 52 |
Chemnitzer | 15 | 37 | 47 | 48 | 52 | 48 |
Zwickau | 16 | 36 | 36 | 48 | 42 | 47 |
Hallescher | 17 | 33 | 49 | 44 | 57 | 49 |
Munster | 18 | 33 | 38 | 43 | 50 | 46 |
Sonnenhof | 19 | 25 | 24 | 28 | 48 | 47 |
Jena | 20 | 18 | 25 | 29 | 50 | 46 |
Eredivisie
Rank | Points | FBM Wyscout score | FBM Wyscout Attack | FBM Wyscout Passing | FBM Wyscout Defense | |
Ajax | 1 | 56 | 87 | 69 | 72 | 53 |
AZ | 2 | 56 | 88 | 70 | 76 | 51 |
Feyenoord | 3 | 50 | 75 | 60 | 68 | 50 |
PSV | 4 | 49 | 72 | 57 | 66 | 50 |
Willem II | 5 | 44 | 50 | 50 | 54 | 48 |
Urecht | 6 | 41 | 72 | 60 | 64 | 49 |
Vitesse | 7 | 41 | 60 | 53 | 59 | 49 |
Heracles | 8 | 36 | 56 | 53 | 56 | 48 |
Groningen | 9 | 35 | 54 | 47 | 74 | 52 |
Heerenveen | 10 | 33 | 54 | 46 | 61 | 48 |
Sparta | 11 | 33 | 43 | 46 | 51 | 47 |
Emmen | 12 | 32 | 47 | 39 | 62 | 47 |
VVV | 13 | 28 | 26 | 30 | 50 | 46 |
Twente | 14 | 27 | 47 | 40 | 62 | 46 |
Zwolle | 15 | 26 | 43 | 38 | 60 | 46 |
Sittard | 16 | 26 | 36 | 38 | 54 | 46 |
ADO | 17 | 19 | 26 | 31 | 50 | 46 |
RKC | 18 | 15 | 32 | 29 | 60 | 45 |
Jupiler Pro League
Rank | Points | FBM Wyscout score | FBM Wyscout Attack | FBM Wyscout Passing | FBM Wyscout Defense | |
Club | 1 | 70 | 74 | 61 | 63 | 53 |
Gent | 2 | 55 | 74 | 60 | 66 | 51 |
Charleroi | 3 | 54 | 63 | 64 | 50 | 51 |
Antwerp | 4 | 53 | 56 | 55 | 53 | 50 |
Standard | 5 | 49 | 59 | 53 | 58 | 49 |
Mechelen | 6 | 44 | 48 | 48 | 54 | 48 |
Genk | 7 | 44 | 52 | 44 | 61 | 47 |
Anderlecht | 8 | 43 | 74 | 59 | 68 | 49 |
Zulte | 9 | 36 | 47 | 44 | 75 | 46 |
Mouscron | 10 | 33 | 49 | 45 | 57 | 48 |
Kortrijk | 11 | 33 | 45 | 45 | 54 | 48 |
STVV | 12 | 33 | 43 | 37 | 62 | 45 |
Eupen | 13 | 30 | 33 | 33 | 54 | 47 |
Cercle | 14 | 23 | 31 | 31 | 54 | 46 |
Oostende | 15 | 22 | 24 | 32 | 46 | 45 |
Waasland | 16 | 20 | 19 | 23 | 51 | 44 |
Dutch Eerste Divisie
Rank | Points | FBM Wyscout score | FBM Wyscout Attack | FBM Wyscout Passing | FBM Wyscout Defense | |
Cambuur | 1 | 66 | 81 | 71 | 62 | 52 |
Graafschap | 2 | 62 | 74 | 64 | 59 | 53 |
Volendam | 3 | 55 | 67 | 55 | 64 | 49 |
Jong Ajax | 4 | 54 | 73 | 59 | 68 | 47 |
NAC | 5 | 50 | 64 | 55 | 59 | 51 |
Go Ahead | 6 | 48 | 51 | 53 | 52 | 47 |
Excelsior | 7 | 47 | 49 | 52 | 52 | 47 |
NEC | 8 | 45 | 61 | 56 | 58 | 49 |
Almere | 9 | 44 | 50 | 49 | 71 | 51 |
Telstar | 10 | 44 | 48 | 45 | 58 | 46 |
Den Bosch | 11 | 38 | 60 | 52 | 62 | 47 |
Jong Utrecht | 12 | 38 | 45 | 50 | 50 | 46 |
Eindhoven | 13 | 34 | 40 | 41 | 54 | 46 |
Jong AZ | 14 | 28 | 48 | 40 | 65 | 44 |
MVV | 15 | 27 | 30 | 38 | 46 | 46 |
Top Oss | 16 | 25 | 33 | 32 | 56 | 46 |
Roda JC | 17 | 22 | 34 | 39 | 50 | 46 |
Jong PSV | 18 | 22 | 45 | 37 | 65 | 44 |
Dordrecht | 19 | 20 | 31 | 32 | 54 | 45 |
Helmond Sport | 20 | 17 | 20 | 25 | 48 | 45 |